Biogenic CO₂, long considered a “waste” stream in energy recovery and the bio-based industry, is becoming a strategic resource for two key pathways to carbon neutrality:
- Upcycling (CCU) to produce synthetic molecules and fuels (e-fuels, e-chemicals).
- Negative emissions (BECCS/CDR) through carbon capture and geological storage.
The Club CO2 study aims to provide an objective assessment of France’s carbon sinks, the costs of mobilizing them, and deployment plans through 2030, 2040, and 2050, based on the ADEME Transitions 2050 scenarios (S2, S3, S4), broken down into three national trajectories (A: conservative, B: intermediate, C: ambitious).
Deposits in France: large volumes, but highly concentrated
For the base year 2022, the study estimates that approximately 22 MtCO₂/year of mobilizable biogenic CO₂ emissions are generated across roughly 2,000 sites. This resource is highly concentrated: approximately 300 industrial sites account for ~90% of the total volume.
Volumes are currently heavily concentrated in three sectors, totaling approximately ~12 MtCO2/year (or ~60% of current volumes):
- Waste incineration (UVE): ~6 MtCO2/year across ~110 sites.
- Paper and cardboard industry: ~4 MtCO2/year across ~15 sites.
- Bioethanol production (sugar industry): ~2 MtCO2/year across 6 sites.
A key finding of the study is that French biogenic CO₂ emissions account for approximately 10% of European biogenic emissions, whereas total French emissions account for approximately 4% of European emissions. This suggests that, proportionally, there is a relatively high level of bio-CO₂ availability in France for CCU applications and storage strategies.
2030–2050 Projection: Growth Driven by Green Gas
Projected biogenic emissions are increasing in all scenarios:
- ~30 MtCO2/year in 2030 (+40% to +50% compared to 2022)
- ~40 to 60 MtCO2/year in 2050 (+100% to +180% compared to 2022)
The main driver is the growth of green gas: an increase in the number of anaerobic digestion facilities and the development of new technologies (e.g., pyrolysis, hydrothermal gasification). Other sectors are evolving at a more moderate pace (energy efficiency, fuel substitution, waste management strategies).
Bio-CO₂ utilization: a matter of costs and logistics
The study ranks the sources based on two key cost drivers:
- Site size (economies of scale)
- CO₂ concentration in the stream (direct impact on energy consumption and capture/processing costs)
Three main categories emerge:
- Large “pure” emitters (e.g., bioethanol, biorefineries): highly concentrated CO₂, competitive costs.
- “Pure” source sites (green gas, biogas purification): concentrated flow but lower volumes; collection must be organized.
- Major industrial and energy-sector emitters (cement/lime, paper/cardboard, power plants): more diluted flue gases, more energy-intensive capture.
Cost estimates cited:
- Major, pure-play emitters : < 50 EUR/tCO2, but with limited volumes (approximately ~3 MtCO2/year).
- To tap into additional reserves: typically ~100 to 200 EUR/tCO2, depending on the specific pathways considered.
By 2030, the study estimates that in mainland France, approximately 15 to 20 MtCO2/year could be captured (for utilization or transport to storage), potentially at a cost of less than < 200 EUR/tCO2. By way of comparison, DAC is estimated to cost 300 to 400 EUR/tCO2 (medium-term estimates).
CCU and BECCS: Transformative Opportunities, Market Uncertainties
The applications under consideration include traditional uses, e-fuels/e-chemicals (CCU), methanation, mineralization, and geological storage.
Two markets stand out as key drivers:
- E-fuels and e-chemicals (CCU)
- Demand is driven by carbon sequestration requirements and the value associated with biogenic CO₂.
- Estimated potential: ~10 to 20 MtCO2/year by 2050.
- Uncertainty: the competitiveness of synthetic fuel imports, which could limit domestic production.
- BECCS / carbon removal credits (CDR)
- Needs that could reach “up to” ~30 MtCO2/year, depending on the scenario.
- Key uncertainty: monetization through CDR markets, which remain limited. The study notes that the voluntary BECCS market size “to date” is very small (on the order of ~0.5 MtCO2/year globally).
- Point d’évolution déterminant : discussions sur une potentielle ouverture de l’EU-ETS aux crédits CDR.
Conséquence : les scénarios de mobilisation sont très contrastés :
- ~1 à 8 MtCO2/an dès 2030
- ~10 à 50 MtCO2/an à long terme
À 2050, la mobilisation pourrait atteindre environ :
- ~20% (conservative estimate): ~9 MtCO2/year
- ~50% (intermediate): ~34 MtCO2/year
- up to ~80% (ambitious): ~47 MtCO2/year
Comparison with Switzerland (FOEN): Legal Framework, CCS/NET, and Incentives
Switzerland has established a legal framework for carbon capture and storage (CCS) and for negative emissions technologies (NET, also known as CDR), with a view to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
Some points highlighted by the federal government (FOEN):
- Order of magnitude: By 2050, Switzerland plans to store approximately 12 million tons of CO₂ per year through CCS and NET, which is nearly 30% of current GHG emissions.
- Aviation: To offset CO₂ emissions from international aviation by 2050, it would be necessary to generate 1 to 2 million tons of negative emissions per year.
- Support and guidance: Since January 1, 2025, the Federal Act on Climate Protection Targets, Innovation, and Strengthening Energy Security has promoted the use of innovative technologies and processes (reduction, capture, and storage). Support is available through a net-zero roadmap that outlines the measures.
- Carbon incentives: Facilities participating in the emissions trading system can count CCS toward their emissions, bringing Switzerland in line with EU regulations and strengthening financial incentives.
- Certification: Since 2022, CO₂ storage projects have been eligible for certification under the CO₂ Act; the certificates issued are tradable, which helps finance the projects.
A comparative analysis of France and Switzerland: the message is consistent. Deployment is not just a matter of resource potential; it depends heavily on the ability to make supply chains measurable, certifiable, traceable, and financeable, with rules compatible with carbon mechanisms.
Conclusion: From Potential to Execution—The Role of WasteOlas
The CO₂ Club’s report confirms that biogenic CO₂ is no longer merely a waste product, but a transition-era feedstock and a potential lever for large-scale carbon removal (CDR). The volumes exist today and are growing, but harnessing this resource will depend on infrastructure and trust-building measures: bio-CO₂ certification, traceability and guarantees of origin, a clear framework for CDR credits, and control over purity specifications.
In this context, WasteOlas plays a key operational role: translating policy goals and scenarios into robust on-the-ground systems by focusing on local CO₂ utilization and the engineering required for its capture (collection, purification, logistics, and integration into hubs). In other words, it bridges the gap between dispersed sources, quality requirements, infrastructure constraints, and downstream markets to accelerate credible, traceable, and economically viable CCU/BECCS projects.
Sources
- Club CO2, Public Summary, Study on the Capture, Storage, and Utilization of Biogenic CO2 in France (public summary; study to be completed in early 2025). Study conducted by E-CUBE in collaboration with Carbon Limits, co-funded by ADEME. (PDF)
- European Biogas: A Driving Force Behind the Energy Transition and Opportunities for Local CO₂ Utilization (February 12, 2026). Article
- FOEN (Switzerland), CO₂ Capture and Storage, Legal Framework (Federal Administration website). Page